Modeling and analysis of a temperature-driven outbreak of waterfowl disease in the Upper Mississippi River

摘要: Abstract Bithynia tentaculata is an invasive snail that was discovered in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) 2002. In addition to being a threat native benthos, also harbors parasite associated with annual outbreaks of waterfowl mortality UMR. Trophic transmission parasites between snails and birds occurs during seasonal migrations, which can depend intimately on temperature. We developed model for disease UMR where depends water temperatures gleaned from empirical studies. By running simulations temperature profiles selected randomly normal distribution, we quantified association number infected hosts average temperatures. Model output demonstrated as rise, host populations initially increase then decay after exceed certain threshold. Results this work suggest increasing region may have negative effect parasites, decreasing their reducing populations.