Predicted direct solar radiation (ECMWF) for optimized operational strategies of linear focus parabolic-trough systems
作者： Francis M Lopes , Ricardo Conceição , Thomas Fasquelle , Hugo G Silva , Rui Salgado
DOI: 10.1016/J.RENENE.2019.11.020
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摘要: Abstract Day-ahead forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), global model European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used to simulate a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant through Advisor Model (SAM) assess potential value IFS in electricity market. Although DNI forecasting still demands advances towards cloud and aerosol representation, present results show substantial improvements with new operational radiative scheme ecRad (cycle 43R3). A relative difference approximately 0.12% total annual energy availability is found between local measurements, while 10.6% obtained previous version. Results electric injection grid simulated linear focus parabolic-trough system shows correlations coefficients 0.87 hourly values based on forecasted measured DNI, 0.92 daily values. In context control strategy, four strategies given different weather scenarios handle management CSP plant, including effect thermal storage capacity. Charge discharge applied accordingly predicted availability.
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