Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation

摘要: Abstract This paper integrates findings from specialized literature and expert opinion evaluation to increase the understanding of present future drivers for electric drive vehicle (EDV) market uptake on a wide spatial scale as basis subsequent multi-criteria evaluations applied different deployment scenarios. Two types analyses were integrated achieve goal identification drivers, which indicate lead markets EDV adoption. First list criteria factors was developed based survey. Secondly, this factor set then verified assessed by panel experts representing key stakeholders with scientific technical background at European level. The broadly grouped under five criteria: “demography”, “environment”, “economy”, “energy” “transport”. survey included valuation each providing quantitative, qualitative importance weighting values years 2020 2030 validity roster level congruence. results study that have confidence in battery vehicles (BEV) plug-in hybrid (PHEV) reach sustained spatially increasing distribution revealed sale projections provided them. seem consider PHEVs more robust vis-a-vis investigated than BEVs. screened includes well-to-wheel emissions, privileged access dedicated lanes, parking city centers, technology learning rate population density both types. Fuel cost savings received congruent feedback vehicles. derived can assist informed political decisions area policy intervention might be appropriate order support BEVs Europe.