Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth

摘要: This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a disaggregated accounting exercise suggests impact of population on be mitigated by structural reforms boosting labour force participation. Finally, general equilibrium models pay-as-you-go pension systems will require combining lower benefits, later retirement age higher social contributions. These findings several policy recommendations: (a) “fiscal space” should preserved counter adverse shocks, (b) plans channel, (c) demographic transition increases need for improved coordination more flexible migration policies, (d) consolidation avoid perverse incentive effects could supply growth.