Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability

摘要: Abstract The impact of both climate change and variability on the supply intermittent renewable energy sources (I-RES) in Europe are assessed based global model simulations. main driver over is North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter its equivalent summer (sNAO) which determine to a large extent atmospheric circulation Europe. Four scenarios constructed distinguished by moderate strong increase average surface temperature, positive negative phase This spans framework combines effects variability. Using 2050 distribution PV panels wind turbines, we found that although likely have significant future I-RES output Europe, effects, especially for power, outweighed high strongly variable NAO/sNAO phases. Variability large-scale able induce median yield differences 20–30% potential regions. Due NAO also months were identified with persistent calm conditions linked inflow frigid arctic air resulting some regions decrease power up 75%a accompanied an heating degree days 30%. results study imply if requirements system including back capacity take into account weather variability, can cope impacts.