A New Approach to the Analysis of Criminal Location Choice

摘要: This paper introduces the discrete spatial choice approach to study of criminal target choice. The is used assess whether residential burglars are attracted areas that affluent, accessible, and poorly guarded. In addition, importance these criteria postulated vary across burglars. theory tested using data on 548 burglaries, committed by 290 from city Hague, Netherlands. likelihood a neighbourhood's being selected for burglary heightened its ethnic heterogeneity, percentage single-family dwellings, proximity where offender lives. results prospects selection research discussed. problem location classical one in criminology. It pertains descriptive question offenders commit their offences, expla natory why they them there, rather than somewhere else. literature, answers latter have involved two general notions usually been dealt with separately. first notion crime occur, motivated must find suitable target, absence capable guardian (Cohen Felson 1979). second crimes tend occur close lives (Baldwin Bottoms 1976: 78-98; Wiles Costello 2000; Ratcliffe 2003). combines notions, an attempt answer how select areas. For purpose, we introduce approach. ana lyses as influenced characteristics char acteristics, simultaneously. We argue able integrate previous findings this field inquiry, useful theoretical method ological tool next section, present review literature Subsequently, give overview earlier methods choice, closely related conditional logit model. then applied Netherlands, police records. concludes summary main results, discussion potential pitfalls studying * Netherlands Institute Study Crime Law Enforcement (NSCR), PO Box 792, NL-2300 AT Leiden, email: bernasco@nscr.nl or nieuwbeerta@nscr.nl, telephone: +31 71 5278527. Haaglanden Police Force provided study. acknowledge contributions Rieny Albers, Hanneke van Essen, Floor Luykx Astrid Patty Peter Versteegh (Haaglanden Force) collection processing data. thank Richard Block, Henk Elffers, Jan de Keijser, Jasper der Kemp Koppen anonymous reviewers constructive comments version.