Informing surveillance for the lowland plague focus in Azerbaijan using a historic dataset

摘要: Yersinia pestis is a gram-negative, zoonotic bacterium and the causative agent of plague. Plague maintained in nature through transmission cycle between partially resistant rodent hosts fleas. There are natural reservoir populations on almost every continent, number reported human plague cases has increased recent years. Azerbaijan country at crossroads Eastern Europe western Asia that history environmental foci. Informing surveillance this region imperative due to deteriorating public health system resulted from collapse Soviet Union. The aim study was inform efforts prioritize regions for Azerbaijan. A 14-year historic data set employed analyze spatio-temporal pattern primary host country, Libyan gird, Meriones libycus, using Space Time Analysis Moving Polygons (STAMP) method. This method useful identifying areas stable abundance across period. relationship STAMP-defined M. libycus variables including mean temperature, altitude, land cover type annual precipitation explored. We were particularly interested increasing population trends area surrounding characterized by historically high abundance, as risk increases humans come into close proximity with vectors. variation over period, but stability identified each category evaluated. significantly different climatic conditions types associated categories abundance. steadily past 30 years, bordering Surveillance should be prioritized