Probabilistic historical biogeography: new models for founder-event speciation, imperfect detection, and fossils allow improved accuracy and model-testing

摘要: Historical biogeography has been characterized by a large diversity of methods and unresolved debates about which processes, such as dispersal or vicariance, are most important for explaining distributions. A new R package, BioGeoBEARS, implements many models in common likelihood framework, so that standard statistical model selection procedures can be applied to let the data choose best model. Available include version DIVA (“DIVALIKE”), LAGRANGE’s DEC model, BAYAREA, well “+J” versions these founder-event speciation, an process left out inference methods. I use BioGeoBEARS on sample island non-island clades (including two fossil clades) show speciation is crucial almost every clade, published datasets reject non-J currently widespread use. open-source freely available installation at Comprehensive Archive Network http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BioGeoBEARS. step-by-step tutorial http://phylo.wikidot.com/biogeobears.