Estimating the microbiological risks associated with inland flood events: Bridging theory and models of pathogen transport.

摘要: Flooding is known to facilitate infectious disease transmission, yet quantitative research on microbiological risks associated with floods has been limited. Pathogen fate and transport models provide a framework examine interactions between landscape characteristics, hydrology, waterborne risks, but have not widely developed for flood conditions. We critically capabilities of current hydrological represent unusual flow paths, non-uniform depths, unsteady velocities that accompany flooding. investigate the theoretical linkages hydrodynamic processes spatio-temporally variable suspension deposition pathogens from soils sediments; pathogen dispersion in flow; concentrations constituents influencing persistence. Identifying gaps knowledge modeling practice, we propose agenda strengthen microbial applied inland floods: 1) development incorporating discharges flooded sources (e.g., latrines), effects transported persistence, supply-limited transport; 2) studies assessing parameter identifiability comparing model performance under varying degrees process representation, range settings; 3) remotely sensed datasets support vulnerable, data-poor regions; 4) collaboration modelers field-based researchers expand collection useful data situ.