Modelling the vulnerability of eco-social systems to global change: Human adaptive capacity to changes in ecosystem service provision

摘要: Abstract Ecosystems provide society with services such as biodiversity, carbon sequestration, scenic beauty, food and fibre yield, timber production fr esh-water availability. Thus, ecosystems are interdependent, their interactions best studied when considering them part of eco-social systems. To assess the vulnerability systems to global change requires: (1) projections changes in provision ecosystem (2) ability human sectors relying on these adapt (i.e., adaptive capacity). In project ATEAM we developing an approach combining two elements within a modelling framework, aimed at producing maps Europe. considers multiple scenarios (climate, land-use, nitrogen deposition social change), which consistent IPCC SRES scenarios. 10 20 30 40 effects exposure drivers uses set models. stakeholder-guided pr ocess, produces spatially explicit service provision, amount sequestered or species richness area. develops capacity by being determined six factors (equality, knowledge, technology, infrastructure, flexibility economic power), each is represented quantitative indicators (