Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts

作者: Warner Marzocchi , J. Douglas Zechar , Stefan Wiemer , Maximilian J. Werner

DOI: 10.4401/AG-4840

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摘要: On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal this CSEP-Italy is to test occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic forecasts over temporal scales range from days years. In first round forecast submissions, members Working Group presented 18 five-year ten-year European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We considered here twelve time-independent among set, evaluated them with respect past seismicity data two Italian catalogs. present results tests measure consistencies according observations. As well being an evaluation submitted, exercise provides insight into number important issues experiments regard specification forecasts, performance tests, trade-off between robustness duration. conclude suggestions design future experiments.

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