Forecasting prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Palestinians to 2030: validation of a predictive model

摘要: Background Projections of the prevalence diabetes mellitus are mostly based on changes in population demographics. Inclusion time trends obesity and other risk factors could improve accuracy projections help with assessment policy options for prevention. We therefore report validation a mathematical model predicting diabetes. Methods created which population, obesity, smoking can be integrated, using Markov approach, to estimate future The parameters were derived from publications, except incidence diabetes, was estimated DISMOD II (version 1.01), computer program that used check consistency estimates incidence, prevalence, duration, case fatality baseline developed Palestinian data available 2000–10. validated by comparison predicted actual point obtained Demographic Health Survey 2000. Family 2004, 2006, Stepwise 2010 validate These national surveys, each more than 6000 participants. This study approved Institute Community Public Ethical Review Committee, West Bank. Findings In 2000, 11·5% (95% CI 9·5–13·5) people aged 25 years or older; 2010, it had increased 14·5% (12·2–16·7). this period, men rose 11·7% (9·7–13·6) 15·9% (13·4–18·1) women 11·4% (9·3–13·3) 13·2% (11·1–15·2). reported 10·6% (8·7–12·5) versus an (9·7–13·4); these values 11·8% (9·8–13·8) 12·3% (10·6–14·6), respectively. Comparison showed good match 2010. forecasts 20·8% (18·0–23·2) 2020 23·4% (20·7–25·8) 2030. If starts fall 5%, starting 13% reduction achieved Interpretation 2000–10 our fairly similar those independent surveys occupied territory. burden is now huge public health challenge, according will increase substantially next two decades. Therefore, need urgent action address them. Funding European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.