AIDS Incidence Rates in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

摘要: The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemic patterns hospital-diagnosed HIV/ AIDS incidence by year, district and age group for Chiang Mai; a northern province Thailand. This based on individual hospital case records HIV/AIDS patients routinely reported from 1997 2006. Linear regression forecast rates used districts groups in order prevent disease epidemics that are likely occur these areas near future. model contained additive effects associated with season district, group, previous years, it can be provide useful short-term forecasts. found all coeffi cients factor were signifi cant, as those factor, except Samoeng, Hot, Doi Tao, Chai Prakan Mae Wang district. All year time 1998 factor. linear obtained an r-square 74.47%.This also average rate appears highest at 2.10 per 10,000 people Hang Dong Having provides such forecasts outbreaks basis allocation