Energy crops in marginal areas: Scenario-based assessment through ecosystem services, as support to sustainable development

摘要: Abstract Starting from the identification of marginal areas, this work presents a possible physical–mathematical approach as support to landscape planning, based on pragmatic determination predictable environmental effects connected land use changes (LUC) and related objective quantitative ecological indicators for impact assessment. “Fringe areas”, which are more suitable change in medium-short time frame, were determined through spatial multicriteria decision analysis (S-MCDA) process. Three scenarios identified analysed, namely: current situation, energy crop cultivation lands, abandonment lands such these. Energy is widely considered be useful opportunity farmers, against progressive risk under-utilization or abandonment; nevertheless, large areas needed can cause important side-effects. In order assess variations components ex-ante planning phase, assessed terms habitat biodiversity ecosystems services (using both monetary indexes approach), focusing also fragmentation by means metrics, simple measures used deepen configuration structure. The S-MCDA process allowed about 10% study area with less favourable conditions defined, where desirable frame. For crops scenario, ecosystem (ESs) highlights positive repercussions quality value. Similar trends highlighted different ESs assessment methods adopted (monetary indexes), confirming themselves. Also, pattern confirmed connectivity trends: delineation fringe has preserved, natural semi-natural classes, reducing disturbance respect habitat. This condition assumes that method contribute positively significantly definition LUC management. conclusion, become an improve socio-economic enhance image, while respecting environment. building, their dynamic structured tool /management maker choices re-calibrate interventions, aim contributing sustainable policies management (ecological corridors, compensation / mitigation measures, etc.), emphasizing benefits (such climate adaptation disaster reduction).