Adaptively Addressing Uncertainty in Estuarine and Near Coastal Restoration Projects

摘要: Restoration projects have an uncertain outcome because of a lack information about current site conditions, historical disturbance levels, effects landscape alterations on development, unpredictable trajectories or patterns ecosystem structural and many other factors. A poor understanding the factors that control development dynamics system, such as hydrology, salinity, wave energies, can also lead to unintended outcome. Finally, experience in restoring certain types systems (e.g., rare very fragile habitats) highly modified situations urbanized estuaries) makes project outcomes uncertain. Because these uncertainties, costs rise dramatically attempt come closer goals. All potential sources error be addressed degree through adaptive management. The first step is admitting uncertainties exist, addressing with planning directed research prior implementing project. second evaluate hypothesis-driven experiments during implementation. third use monitoring program adjust needed improve probability reach goal. Themore » fourth final gained future projects. framework includes clear goal statement, conceptual model, evaluation help this restoration process. Projects programs vary their application management restoration, it difficult prescriptive applying necessarily widely scope, goal, characteristics, uncertainties. Very large Mississippi River delta (Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, Act; CWPPRA) incorporated specific detailed elements more active effort. In Puget Sound, Sound Action Team uses site-specific case studies, monitoring, public involvement direct actions reduce microbial contamination harvestable shellfish. Small-scale improved For example, assessments resulted successful seagrasses near ferry terminal Sound. It recommended all conducted framework, where appropriate, approach applied. net effect should less uncertainty, success, advancement science cost savings.« less