Quantitative methods to direct exploration based on hydrogeologic information

摘要: Quantitatively Directed Exploration (QDE) approaches based on information such as model sensitivity, input data covariance and output are presented. Seven for directing exploration developed, applied, evaluated a synthetic hydrogeologic site. The QDE evaluate uncertainty, subsurface sensitivity and, most importantly, to identify the next location sample. Spatial parameter values covariances calculated with multivariate conditional probability calculation from limited number of samples. A variogram structure is used during extrapolation describe spatial continuity, or correlation, information. Model can be determined by perturbing evaluating response or, in this work, sensitivities programmed directly into an analysis model. Output First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) method, which combines sensitivity. groundwater flow example, modeled MODFLOW-2000, chosen demonstrate seven approaches. MODFLOW-2000 obtain piezometric head simultaneously. accuracy after sample added. For site study, approach that identifies hydraulic conductivity contributes overall variance proved best method quantitatively direct exploration.