Determinants of sexual transmission of HV: implications for control

摘要: The extent to which ART (anti-retroviral therapy) reduces HIV transmission has received attention in recent years. Using data on the relationship between and viral load we show that saturates at high loads. We fit a power-law model an exponential converging asymptote. HIV-positive people is likely reduce by 91.6% (81.7%-96.2%) under first 99.5% (98.5%-99.8%) second model. The role of acute phase still debated. High levels during have been used argue failure identify may compromise impact treatment preventing new infections having concurrent sexual partners important driver epidemic. probably accounts for less than 1% overall transmission. also even if significant proportion are transmitted phase, this will not population given constraint implied doubling time This analysis leads other relevant conclusions. First, it discordant-couple studies significantly underestimate risk infection. Second, should be paid variability set point determines both infectiousness susceptibility HIV-negative people. Third, drugs short supply those with highest priority, others things including age, gender opportunistic being equal, but offered all above about 10k/mm.3