A strategy for high‐resolution ensemble prediction. II: Limited‐area experiments in four Alpine flood events

摘要: A high-resolution ensemble system, based on five runs of a limited-area model (LAM), is described. The initial and boundary conditions for the LAM integrations are provided by representative members (RMs) selected from European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). EPS grouped in clusters; then, each cluster, an RM selected, according to methodology described companion paper. ability system predict occurrence heavy rainfall events (either or six days ahead) tested four cases floods over Alpine region. Results show that, two case-studies, integration corresponding highly populated cluster predicts observed with very good degree time spatial accuracy. In other cases, extreme captured at least one nested less clusters. Probability maps constructed provide great detail location regions affected precipitation information gained respect probability deterministic forecasts highlighted. probabilistic estimates ensembles also shown be valuable assistance forecasters issuing early flood alerts, contributing definition flood-risk alarm system.