Incriminating bluetongue virus vectors with climate envelope models

摘要: Summary 1 The spread of vector-borne diseases into new areas, commonly attributed to environmental change or increased trade and travel, could be exacerbated if novel vector species in newly invaded areas infection beyond the range traditional vectors. 2 By analysing differential degree overlap between envelopes for bluetongue, a devastating livestock disease, its (Afro-Asian) potential (Palearctic) midge vectors, we have implicated latter recent dramatic northward this disease Europe. 3 The bluetongue virus, Afro-Asian Culicoides imicola, was found occur warm (annual mean 12–20 °C), thermally stable locations that were dry summer (< 400 mm precipitation). The Palearctic C. obsoletus pulicaris complexes both cooler (down 7 °C annual mean), more variable wetter (up 700 mm precipitation) locations. 4 Of 501 recorded outbreaks from 1998–2004 epidemic southern Europe, 40% fall outside climate envelope but within species’ complexes. 5 The distribution multivariate space virus is closer Palaearctic vectors than it imicola. This suggests now play substantial role transmission facilitated cooler, regions Europe. 6 Synthesis applications. risk Northern Europe depends on how much distributions widespread, abundant (the complexes) can occupy, perhaps determined by thermal constraints viral replication. highlighted sudden appearance 2006 at latitudes 50° North – approximately 6° further North previous Europe. Future surveillance related Culicoides-borne pathogens should include studies record explain distributional patterns all species.