The 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence as a chaotic process

摘要: Abstract In this paper we demonstrate that the seismic sequence of foreshocks culminating with recent M w  = 6.3 main shock on April 6, 2009 in L'Aquila (Central Italy) evolved as a chaotic process. To do this, apply nonlinear retrospective prediction to and look at temporal behaviour error between predicted actual occurrence when gradually increasing parts are considered. This is generalisation typical approach which quite powerful detect chaos relatively short time series. The method based Accelerated Strain Release (ASR) analysis forecasting reconstructed phase space. We find i) decay consistent an exponential function constant τ about 10 days ii) around 6 days before shock, ASR for anticipating uncertainty day. Due its characteristics, latter result could be affected by changes some a-priori parameters used application technique. However, consider these findings, together those obtained from phase-space analysis, strong evidence studied was produced physical process dominated significant component characterised K -entropy = 1/ 0.1 day −1 . have important implications predictability possible sequences showing analogous properties.