Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?

摘要: Abstract Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to it their decision-making in real time. It best represented through calculation of nowcast probabilities. A variety such probabilities are produced using real-time data set for US period, focusing likelihood various events 1986q1-2008q4 and prospects beyond end sample.