Estimating economic loss from cascading infrastructure failure: a perspective on modelling interdependency

摘要: Infrastructure failure can cause significant disruption of economic activity. The size loss is a direct function the interdependencies between infrastructure and systems raising important questions about vulnerability resilience. Economic theory in this regard as it makes distinction damage to (stock) how may transfer losses productivity (flow). In order capture consequences failure, various models have been proposed represent multimodal complex networks effects cascading failure. There still no consensus on correct approach for estimating loss. method commonly known input-output analysis has gained most attention recent years its ability model indirect or higher-order losses. typical spawned an entire field related which include: inoperability (IIM); Ghosh supply-side model; dynamic models; key-linkages analysis; well inventory based amongst others. Amongst methods used paper identifies assumptions shortcomings that must be overcome produce better estimates Firstly, critical are connected economy through both physical linkages. Models need types linkage accurately will lead then sectoral impact systems. Secondly, approaches assume structure within remains stable during disaster throughout recovery process. New required able substitution goods structural change economy. Thirdly, generally deterministic nature thus give indication uncertainty behind model-based estimates. using probability such Monte-Carlo simulations fuzzy logic prove avenues quantifying resulting from