Statistical downscaling of precipitation for a selection of sites in Ireland employing a generalised linear modelling approach

摘要: Producing plausible outputs from statistically downscaled models of daily precipitation remains a significant challenge when producing climate scenarios for impact assessments. This arises primarily as consequence number difficulties encountered working with higher resolution data. Precipitation receipts at site tend to be largely heterogeneous over space and time local factors, such relief, play an important role in determining whether it rains or not. More crucially the point view statistical analysis, data is rarely, if ever, normally distributed, resulting high frequency occurrence low-fall events low high-fall events. Additionally, modelling requires two-step procedure. First, must modelled: then model fitted quantities which describes rainfall distribution days on occurs. paper presents technique that overcomes some produces amounts selection 14 sites Ireland. Difficulties still exist predicting extreme events, underestimated by methodology employed. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society