The Impact of Low-Level Moisture Errors on Model Forecasts of an MCS Observed during PECAN
作者： John M. Peters , Erik R. Nielsen , Matthew D. Parker , Stacey M. Hitchcock , Russ S. Schumacher
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摘要: AbstractThis article investigates errors in forecasts of the environment near an elevated mesoscale convective system (MCS) Iowa on 24–25 June 2015 during Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. The eastern flank this MCS produced outflow boundary (OFB) and moved southeastward along OFB as a squall line. western remained quasi stationary approximately 100 km north system’s localized flooding. A total 16 radiosondes were launched MCS’s 4 flank.Convective available potential energy (CAPE) increased inhibition (CIN) decreased substantially observations h prior to arrival In contrast, model analyses underpredicted CAPE overpredicted CIN owing their underrepresentation moisture. Numerical simulations that placed varying distances too far northeast we...
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