Quantifying catastrophic and climate impacted hazards based on local expert opinions.

摘要: Quantifying the potential costs of catastrophic and climate impacted hazards is a challenging but important exercise as occurrence such events usually associated with high damage uncertainty. At local level, there often lack information on rare extreme events, which means that available data not sufficient to fit distribution derive parameter values for frequency severity distributions. This paper discusses use assessments utilises expert elicitation in order obtain parameters will feed into management decisions regards quantifying risks. We illustrate simple approach, where required only specify two percentiles loss provide an estimate hazards. In our approach we heavy-tailed distributions capture events. Our method allows government decision makers focus losses tail distribution. An illustration provided utilising example quantifies property from bushfires area northern Sydney. further how key variables, discount rates, assumptions about climatic change adaptation measures, impact estimates losses.