Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

摘要: We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in tropical upper stratosphere. find that cycle (SC) changes can be well approximated by considering response to SSI a small number of individual wavelength bands 176 310 nm, operating independently each other. Additionally, we varies approximately linearly with SSI. Using these facts, present Bayesian formalism for inferring SC uncertainties from measured profiles. inference is powerful, mathematically self-consistent method both data additional external information provide best estimate parameters being estimated. this method, show that, given measurement datasets, it not currently possible distinguish observed or modelled datasets using available estimates change profiles, although might inclusion other constraints. Our methodology has potential, wider better understanding variations atmospheric response.