Socio-economic implications of climate change with regard to forests and forest management. Contribution of work package 3 to the forest vulnerability assessment

摘要: The assessment of the vulnerability Australian forests to climate change is an initiative Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC). National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) was approached carry out such a comprehensive Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA). NCCARF engaged four research groups investigate distinct aspects in relation forests, each which has produced report. In addition fifth group create summary and synthesis report project. This – Socio-economic implications with regard forest management - third series. Through review literature this part FVA project established identify potential socio-economic impacts develop framework for thinking about coordinated responses socially economically adverse outcomes. This based predominantly on relevant economic, social policy studies. some original work carried on: • development model plantation decision-making under change; and • small-scale survey respondents two towns timber growing regions good mix types (Bombala Eden/Gippsland region; Scottsdale in north-eastern Tasmania) determine their response change. The organised according cause logic, starting underlying (climate change), through identification effects as problems that should or might be addressed, planned by state agencies stakeholders, final consideration engaging broader community. concludes recommendations adaptation future research.The direct economic resulting from biophysical considered include changes in: • production timber, pulp fuel locations production; the ranges tree other forest-utilising species; • intrinsic value habitat quality viability; • appearance, therefore human perceptions, forests; • carbon sequestration rates; • impact trees have soil salinity control; water filtration services provided forests. The habitats also needs because it can assumed natural capital, even absence use humans, significant impacts. flow-on these primary include: • growth forest-based communities accelerated decline others output regional income cumulative effect of relocation re-establishment decisions; • aesthetic pleasure spiritual comfort particular possible tourism preferences due appearance,composition quality; increased competition between farmers,rural ‘lifestylers’ managers land higher rainfall areas could drive prices up. Apart climates costs, decisions directly influence demand products will significantly forest/plantation establishment decisions. Incentives establish sinks to increase area national conservation estates, thereby offsetting flow change. However, there are concerns reforestation landscapes. Given uncertainty extent trajectory consequences, facilitating adaptive best approached, initially at least, adapting existing institutional arrangements previous approaches major resource management issues. broad include: o Building experience lessons Regional Forests Agreements process, especially multi-criteria assessment, consider ecological, considerations landscape planning, structural adjustment packages communities; o planning concepts resources (NRM) instruments facilitate movement, adaptation, species. would concept biolinks, connections across developed through: voluntary covenants (established contributions for-profit agreements applying to individuals, families landholders); creation specific tenures, Indigenous Protected Areas; regulations vegetation private land; government purchasing complete biolinks reserves. Nonetheless, location, viability appearance unavoidable we do not see governments address all issues, implying that there need autonomous adaptation. It critical cultural question whether people accept, re-engage with, perhaps re-imagine our here engagement important. forest-dependent communities found much done engage where they dealing There is underlying scepticism nature change, very local personal