Sampling uncertainties and source b likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter b value from the Aki-Utsu method

摘要: The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are meaningless because they based on adequate samples. We propose a to estimate likelihood Pr(bǀb m , N, M 1, 2) an observed estimate, sample N magnitudes within [M 1 − ≤ ΔM/2, 2 + ΔM/2) range, where ΔM = 0.1 usual rounding applied magnitudes, due “true” source value, b, and use these likelihoods ranges corresponding various confidence levels. As example application method, we values before after occurrence 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Mexican subduction zone, find difference 0.82 between them with 100% different.