GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss

摘要: The GLOBIO3 model has been developed to assess human-induced changes in biodiversity, the past, present, and future at regional global scales. is built on simple cause-effect relationships between environmental drivers biodiversity impacts, based state-of-the-art knowledge. mean abundance of original species relative their undisturbed ecosystems (MSA) used as indicator for biodiversity. Changes are derived from IMAGE 2.4 model. Drivers considered land-cover change, land-use intensity, fragmentation, climate atmospheric nitrogen deposition, infrastructure development. addresses (i) impacts MSA importance; (ii) expected trends under various scenarios; (iii) likely effects policy response options. successfully several integrated assessments. Three different global-scale options have evaluated potential reduce loss. These are: climate-change mitigation through expanded use bio-energy, an increase plantation forestry, protected areas. We conclude that loss continue during coming decades. Plantation forestry may help rate loss, whereas extensive bioenergy crops will, fact, this protection 20% all large leads a small reduction provided effective currently degraded areas restored.