Market and Survey Forecasts of the Three-Month Treasury-Bill Rate

摘要: In this article, four readily available one-quarter-ahead forecasts of the three-month U.S. Treasury bill rate are compared. The considered (1) a prediction from futures market, (2) forecast derived an implicit forward calculation, (3) survey-gathered forecast, and (4) no-change forecast. Each is examined for general accuracy extent bias contained in each over twelve-year period 1977-88. Results indicate that statistically dominates other three forecasts, while survey projections generally found to be least accurate most biased. Copyright 1992 by University Chicago Press.