A 35-year meteorological drought analysis in the Caribbean Region: case study of the small island state of Trinidad and Tobago

摘要: Small island states are vulnerable to changes in extreme weather events. In order mitigate the effects of these events such as droughts, understanding patterns meteorological droughts is one first steps. This study aims build a baseline scenario using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for southernmost Caribbean islands Trinidad and Tobago. Fourteen precipitation datasets, period 1980 2014, were analyzed identify assess temporal spatial variations droughts. The relevant SPI intervals area 2-M (Month), 5-M Dry 7-M Wet corresponding dry wet seasons 12-M. Meteorological found be heterogeneous occurrence, magnitude, severity frequency across Trinidad. identified following years; 2-M, 1987 1989; long term, 12-M 1993, 2001 2010; seasonally, Dry, 2014 Wet, 2010. observed decrease (increase) may have positive (negative) effect on Hollis (Navet) dam. Statistically significant trends with magnitudes ranging from − 0.06 0.04 per year larger than trends, between − 0.03 0.02 year. For time, three areas similar drought variability north central These results highlight characteristics over small island, possible adverse surface water reservoirs provide impetus more specific studies.