Assessing the variability of expert estimates in the USGS Three-part Undiscovered Mineral Resource Assessment methodology: A call for increased skill diversity and scenario-based training

摘要: Abstract Future mineral exploration will necessarily be conducted in increasingly challenging and uncertain search spaces as near-surface, high-quality ore deposits are progressively depleted. Faced with this increase task complexity, an important consideration from management perspective is the behavioural aspect of information interpretation decision-making. One such space Sandstone Greenstone Belt, Western Australia, covering area approximately 920 km2, that deemed prospective for discovery archean orogenic gold deposits, mined (historic production), inferred indicated resources (JORC 2004 2012) totalling 54 t Au. Gold endowment estimates made by geoscience experts, during project evaluation workshop, were compared a group non-geoscientists, separate but identical workshop. Significant differences identified between expert geoscientists non-geoscience group, latter proving more conservative. However, portion experts (N = 11) produced conservative estimates, comparable to (N = 10), both suggesting existence additional similar size quality known (with median total 99 120 Au, respectively). The remaining presented significantly optimistic, albeit inconsistent, area, predicting undiscovered larger than those already defined belt estimate 350 Au). Although true within remains uncertain, several possible factors can explain variations estimates. These include application contrasting strategies, participants opting apply empirical or conceptual methods, background experience, resulting distinct skillsets varying ability uncertainty. To improve it suggested individual expertise appropriate assessment strategies developed through scenario-based training courses, greater skill experience diversity teams desirable, leading balanced aggregate Further research warranted determine which, if any, proposed account these disparities. This could used adapt composition develop programs promote development predictive targeting, order future resources.