Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil : An agent-based modeling approach

摘要: The Brazilian government aims to increase the share of biofuels in energy mix around 18% by 2030, which implies an ethanol production from currently 27 bln liters over 50 per year. Biofuel policies play important role production, consumption, and investment processing capacity. Nevertheless, a clear understanding how current affect evolution market is lacking. We developed spatially-explicit agent-based model analyze impact different blend mandates taxes levied on gasoline, hydrous, anhydrous capacity consumption ethanol. uses land use projections PCRaster Land Use Change incorporates institutions governing actors’ strategic decision making with regard ethanol, interaction among actors. From investigated policy measures, we find that gasoline tax leads highest increased investments sugarcane also above 1.23 R$/l exemption for hydrous may lead doubling 2030 (relative 2016).