Comprehensive wellbore stability analysis utilizing Quantitative Risk Assessment

摘要: Abstract A comprehensive geomechanical approach to wellbore stability requires knowledge of rock strength, pore pressure and the magnitude orientation three principal stresses. These parameters are often uncertain, making confidence in deterministic predictions risks associated with instabilities during drilling production difficult assess. This paper demonstrates use Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) formally account for uncertainty each input parameter assess probability achieving a desired degree at given mud weight. We also utilize QRA how affects weight calculated maintain stability. In one case study, we illustrate this allows us compute optimal windows casing set points deep-water site. another demonstrate feasibility underbalanced open-hole completion horizontal wells utilizing analysis that includes application QRA.