Measurement of GCM Skill in Predicting Variables Relevant for Hydroclimatological Assessments

摘要: Abstract Simulations from general circulation models are now being used for a variety of studies and purposes. With up to 23 different GCMs available, it is desirable determine whether specific variable particular model representative the ensemble mean, which often assumed indicate likely state that in future. The answers important decision makers researchers using selective outputs follow-on such as statistical downscaling, currently assume all simulated with equal reliability. A skill score, termed convergence score (VCS), has been derived can be rank variables based on coefficient variation ensemble. key benefit development simple methodology allows quantitative assessment between hydroclimatic variables. VCS applied nine eight two emission scenarios t...