Forecasting the spread of invasive rainbow smelt in the Laurentian Great Lakes region of North America.

摘要: Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) have invaded many North American lakes, often resulting in the extirpation of native fish populations. Yet, their invasion is incipient and provides rationale for identifying ecosystems likely to be where management prevention efforts should focused. To predict presence absence, we constructed a classification-tree model based on habitat data from 354 lakes range southern Maine. Maximum lake depth, area, Secchi depth (surrogate measure productivity) were most important predictors. We then used our identify vulnerable three regions outside smelt's range: northern Maine (52 244 non-native range), Ontario (4447 8110), Wisconsin (553 5164). further identified subset with strong potential impact (potential-impact lakes) species that are affected by rainbow smelt. Ninety-four percent also potential-impact as 94% 58% Wisconsin's respectively. Our modeling approach can applied other invaders invasion-prone ecosystems, thus aiding invasive efficient allocation mitigation resources.