Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility

摘要: This book opens a new window on human fertility. Most of the literature, both popular and scholarly, deals with averages, as indicated by observation that for long-term stationarity we need 2.1 children per woman at present low mortality rates. could mean 90% women have two 10% 3; it alternatively 30% no 70% 3. It even few 5 to 10 children, most none. To enact policy aims raise or lower birthrate makes great deal difference which distribution applies, this provides little information. This question is conveniently discussed in terms parity progression: who one child, what fraction goes second child; those third; so forth. We know all countries high proportion try give birth least children; bear two, third sense essence replacement fertility developed countries. One cannot imagine succeeding without its main effect being influence omen want three rather than two. Distribution important interpretation cohort period data. In former, follows statistically groups born same time through their childbearing careers; latter, tries draw conclusions from behavior cross section observed particular calendar year over years. The information discloses more about does data; however, data up date, 30 study thoroughly averages distributions both.