Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

摘要: A need for low-carbon world has added a new challenging dimension the long-term energy scenarios development. In addition to traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political, and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of modern forecasts related coverage, timing, stringency policies mitigate greenhouse gas emissions air pollutants. Modern tools scenario development provide good basis estimates required changes in system achieve certain climate environmental targets. While current show that move future requires drastic change investment resulting mix technologies, exact technology mix, paths needed price, cost projections should be treated with great degree caution. The do not predictions, but they can used as qualitative analysis decision-making risks associated different pathways. If history any guide, overestimate extent which will look recent past. As costs mixes are uncertain, wise government policy target reductions from source, rather than focus on boosting kinds energy. For further resources this article, please visit WIREs website.