From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

摘要: Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect topdown global oversight with bottom-up sub-national knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially-explicit scenarios at national scale model socio-economic dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives spatial data. illustrate results generated this approach evaluate its potential to contribute greater understanding the relationship between pathways sustainability. Using lens land use cover changes, engaging 240 stakeholders representing (seven forest management Zones) level, we applied assess alternative strategies in Tanzania mainland year 2025 - under either business as usual or green scenario. In scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated expands ca. 2% per (up 88,808 km2), large impacts on woodlands wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment natural occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads degradation (i.e. loss tree biomass) up 80,426 km2 wooded land. The economy scenario envisages decreasing deforestation increasing (+10%) implementation Payment Ecosystem Service schemes. cropland 44,132 additional limited 35,778 km2. This captures knowledge across diverse range regions. Although further effort required extend applicability, improve users’ equity, reduce costs resulting outputs can be used inform level planning policy associated sustainable development, especially REDD+ climate mitigation strategy.