Charting out the future agricultural trade and its impact on water resources

摘要: Abstract International agricultural trade triggers inter-dependency among distant countries, not only in economic terms but also under an environmental perspective. Agricultural has been shown to drive threats pertaining biodiversity loss and depletion pollution of freshwater resources. Meanwhile, can encourage production where it is most efficient, hence minimizing the use natural resources required by agriculture. In this study, we provide a country-level assessment future international for 6 primary crops 3 animal products composing 70% human diet caloric content. We set up four variegate socio-economic scenarios with different level developments, diets habits, population growth dynamics, levels market liberalization. Results show that demand goods correspondent flow will increase respect current 10–50% 74–178% 2050, respectively. The largest amount traded expected Economic Optimism scenario see average 2830 kcal/cap/day (i.e., nearly doubling per-capita flow). Most be driven feeding, particularly maize crop. networks architecture 2050 2080 very from one actually know, clear shift pole Western toward Eastern economies. dramatic changes global food-sources patterns jeopardize water new regions while exacerbating pressure those areas continue serving food future. spite this, may annually save around 40–60 m3 per person, compared situation countries are self-sufficient.