Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future?

摘要: Hydrologists have traditionally assumed that the annual maximum flood process at a location is independent and identically distributed. While nonstationarities in due to land use changes long been recognized, it only recently becoming clear structured interannual, interdecadal, longer time variations planetary climate impart temporal structure frequency control system design operation timescales. The influence of anthropogenic change on nature floods also an issue societal concern. Here we focus (1) diagnosis are synchronous with low-frequency state (2) exploration limiting probability distributions implied by simulation model El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Implications for risk analysis discussed.