Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

摘要: The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range sliding conditions. This provides unified representation diverse phenomena including weakening characteristic distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, various other transient rate effects. Laboratory observations theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals accelerating slip. Strains from the process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values Dc apply to in nature. However, scaling presently open question possibility exists measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity modeled as sequence events. In this model, clustering arises sensitivity times stress changes induced prior model gives Omori aftershock decay law assigns physical interpretation parameters. seismicity predicts large probabilities result changes. Two mechanisms foreshocks are proposed describe observed frequency occurrence foreshock-mainshock pairs time magnitude. With first mechanism, represent manifestation which change foreshock increases probability earthquakes all magnitudes eventual mainshock. second mainshock zone triggers foreshocks.