Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

摘要: Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, decreasing aragonite saturation state creates high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral habitats to change in remote Pacific, using National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges physico-chemical variables used define their performance is tested future scenarios. General loss habitat expected scenarios has been shown previous studies. found exactly that most predominant environments. However, certain considered marginal today latitude, along equator eastern tropical Pacific were be quite robust Furthermore, an refuge previously identified central south near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying specific showed prevailing conditions this during 20th century shift a new set conditions, more characteristic higher latitude reefs century, projected 2100.