A Variance Explanation Paradox: When a Little is a Lot

作者: Robert P. Abelson

DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.97.1.129

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摘要: Concerning a single major league at bat, the percentage of variance in batting performance attributable to skill differentials among major league baseball players can be calculated statistically. The statistically appropriate calculation is seriously discrepant with intuitions about the influence of skill in batting performance. This paradoxical discrepancy is discussed in terms of habits of thought about the concept of variance explanation. It is argued that percent variance explanation is a misleading index of the influence of systematic …

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