Assessing Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in Indo-Gangetic Basin☆

摘要: The Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) is characterised by cereal-based farming systems where livestock an integral part of farm economy. Majority the population derives their livelihood from agriculture sector which dominated small land holdings (<2 ha). Cereal crops (mainly rice and wheat) are crucial to ensuring food security in region, but sustaining productivity has become a major challenge due climate variability uncertainty. This paper uses integrated climate-crop- economic modelling framework (using AgMIP protocols) make assessment change adaptation strategy for rice-wheat growing farms Meerut district (India) IGB. enables integration location- farm-specific crop output assessing impact on using trade-off analysis (TOA-MD) model. clearly shows likely agricultural production systems, how strategies can reduce vulnerabilities. Sensitivity that under current system, mean yield declines 8–23% while wheat 17-29% five scenarios. Though decline net returns per capita income appears small, large proportion (53-79%) remains vulnerable change. Assessment future (2050s) though 3–9% 2–6%, respectively, different scenarios, (39–64%) incur losses existing system positive impacts yield, income. However, comprehensive more sites would be useful devising appropriate improve livelihoods IGB region.