Bubbles in Real Estate, A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US. CEPS Working Documents No. 239, 1 February 2006

摘要: The spectacular growth of the US housing market as a driver domestic demand has attracted lot attention over last year. Policy-makers and participants routinely add health warning to their outlooks for economy related market, based on assumption that in will slow down dramatically once prices start decelerate. It is generally assumed eurozone does not face similar prospect, because areas ‘froth’ (Spain, example) co-exist alongside declining (Germany). would be wrong, however, assume euro area have average behaved differently from those US. This note presents composite indicator compares its evolution long run with main findings are quite simple: 1) aggregate index real risen almost much now (together US) about 40% above 30-year average. exactly equal overvaluation Japanese estate at height bubble, which was then followed by decade decline. 2) Over 30 years, tended follow closely, but lag two years. An ancillary finding (compared longer-term historical average) even larger UK Australia.