REAL—Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region

摘要: An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is generate an ensemble of fields. The paper proposes a generator designed for usage Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from real-time implementation coupling with semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model flash flood modelling steep Alpine catchment. Each member possible realisation unknown true field given observed knowledge space-time error structure estimates. Feeding alternative realisations into hydrological yields distribution response values, spread which represents sensitivity runoff uncertainties input field. presented based on singular value covariance matrix, stochastic simulation algorithm, autoregressive filtering. It allows full representation spatial dependence mean covariances errors. This particular importance mountainous region large uncertainty strong location. coupled framework forecast demonstration project MAP D-PHASE one experiments this type worldwide, fully novel contribution evolving area applied research. Copyright c ! 2009 Royal Meteorological Society