New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets:

摘要: New product innovation is a strategic business activity that involves significant financial resources and managerial attention. Most new launches fail because existing methods are unable to forecast their commercial successes accurately. In this article, we describe market-based method address gap. This capitalizes on the power of "wisdom crowds" by allowing people interact in organized markets governed well-defined rules. The working these relies five scientific principles referred as I4C (pronounced "I foresee"). These motivate share information freely through price discovery process. Prediction seek aggregation from large group diverse individuals encouraging active participation. We demonstrate with real application examples wide variety industries.