Effect of Screening for Cancer in the Nordic Countries on Deaths, Costs and Quality of Life up to the Year 2017

摘要: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects screening for cancer in Nordic countries. There is sufficient scientific evidence conclude that cervical cancer, breast and colorectal will result a reduction mortality. on mortality were predicted future up year 2017 assuming countries are covered by as nation-wide population-based public health policy comparing trends with those no programmes. For programme practised Finland used point reference. results randomized preventive trials assumed absence detailed based any policy, i.e., 30% from 20% cancer. ages frequencies ranged 25 59 years at 5-year intervals 50 69 2-year annual 74 Data incidence 2012, mortality, survival size general population employed estimation. Age-cohort age-period-cohort log-linear models applied predicting rates without screening. choice depended age distribution deaths each particular site changes such establishment mass-screening, goodness fit model. would 1600 prevented out potential 13,600 1995, corresponding 11% three primary sites. Only after 2010 ultimate effect have full an 2013-2017 number be 3900 15,000 deaths, 26% reduction. This equal 5.7% all (2.0% males 9.7% females). numbers 1500 1000 Most (91%) cancers can prevented, whereas proportion (18%) much smaller. Costs programmes estimated taking into consideration direct costs savings advanced disease treatment terminal care. total cost cervical, $111 m. Cervical save $17 m yearly period 2008-2012. Screening approaching phase when both relatively stable it cost-saving. expected become apparent gradually during due increasing (and percentage) patients diagnosed When achieve optimal effect, increase fall, resulting substantial decrease cost-effectiveness ratio. In last considered (2008-2012) per life gained (breast $15,400, $5700) approximately one half onset differences LYG small between mainly dependent baseline risk $4400 2010.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)