Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak
作者： Simon Dellicour , Guy Baele , Gytis Dudas , Nuno R. Faria , Oliver G. Pybus
DOI: 10.1101/163691
关键词:
摘要: This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/ 10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100046). The recent Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa witnessed considerable efforts to obtain viral genomic data as the epidemic was unfolding. If such can be deployed real-time, molecular epidemiological investigations could play a role complementing contact tracing undertaken public health agencies. Analysing EBOV genomes accumulated date also deliver insights into dynamics. Such analyses have shown that metapopulation dynamics were critical for dispersal between rural urban areas during epidemic, but implications specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show long-distance events (between administrative >250 km apart) not crucial expansion preventing lineage movement any given area would, most cases, had little impact. However, - specifically those encompassing three capital cities their suburbs attracting further disseminating virus: all simultaneously would contained size two-thirds. Using continuous phylogeographic reconstructions estimate distance kernel spread reveal heterogeneity velocity through time. announcements border closures followed significant transient effect on international dispersal. By quantifying hypothetical impact different strategies well barriers frequency, our study illustrates how help control questions.
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